On BFAP Agricultural Outlook 2017 - 2026: applause, opportunities and warnings

The latest annual Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) Baseline Agricultural Outlook has been released.

The annual Outlook is a project among several role players, primarily driven by the University of Pretoria, University of Stellenbosch and the Department of Agriculture in the Western Cape. It is at pains to stress that the Outlook is not a prediction, merely a look at what is possible should various factors remain constant.

It notes some good news:

• The intensive livestock production enterprises will benefit from the surplus of grain following the ending of the drought in most areas of the country (the negative, of course, is low producer prices for grain farmers). 
• The country has for the past five years been a net exporter of beef. This is a positive even if a lack of weaners following the drought means that weaner prices are higher.
• Lamb and wool prospects look good.
• Growth in horticultural products such as berries, macadamias and pecan nuts continues to be “phenomenal”.

A round of applause, please, for the country which has, since 2005, reduced the percentage of the population living in the low income brackets (LSM 1-3) from 32 percent to 8 percent. It follows that this has led to a greater demand for food, and particularly to what is eaten.

The above growth is projected to slow down “considerably” over the next ten years, however, and be concentrated in urban areas. The BFAP Outlook suggests that this fact, along with the disparity between urban and rural prices, creates “significant opportunities” for informal chains to expand. Any entrepreneurs with ideas on how to close the gap between urban and rural food prices?

Higher income earners look for healthier alternatives (as well as value for money options). This is to be seen as an opportunity.

“Well-structured trade agreements, market access, and well structured and well managed sanitary and phytosanitary regulations” are what government must bring to the table.

Investment in the maintenance and expansion of water infrastructure, producer support programmes and education and training are top priorities for public sector funds.

All eyes are on the Western Cape, a major producer of horticultural products and wine. The spectre of drought has not been lifted here. And innovation among grain producers is a necessity: they should look at ways to add value to their product and/or to dilute margins in order to survive.

Access to support services like finance, information and technology, and economies of scale and the ability to manage risk “will count more than ever”, be it for commercial farmers or developing ones. Role players in the value chain who are not competitive or highly efficient, or not “positioned correctly in terms of their value add to the chain” will probably not be around next year.

Warnings

The Outlook reminds us that producers in South Africa are among the lowest five countries in the world when it comes to receiving subsidies from government [OECD’s Producer Support Estimate (PSE)]. Taking this into account, along with current economic condition, the targets of the National Development Plan are “simply not achievable”.

There has to be a belief that there will be growth before the necessary investment in agriculture happens. Improving food security, creating jobs, creating wealth (and reducing poverty) all depend on this. The mixed messages from government and resulting “increasing political uncertainty” keeps the brakes on this necessary belief in the future.

The implications for land reform and developing producers are significant. The industry as a whole needs to put realistic targets and plans in place, and then jointly execute these plans. A fragmented, ideologically driven, and uncoordinated approach will fail. The success of developing producers and land reform will hinge on the ability to allow producers to express their entrepreneurial potential. Simply supporting people without allowing them to thrive and grow through innovation, will not lead to success. This implies access to cutting edge knowledge and expertise; access to land but with ownership vesting with the producer to allow them to leverage the value of the asset to access finance and to allow them to increase the size of their operations to gain economies of scale; access to cutting edge technology and genetics to allow them to produce proper yields and good quality products that can be sold to both formal and informal markets; and lastly a nimble and supportive government that creates a playing field whereby developing producers and land reform beneficiaries can truly unlock the economic potential vested in themselves and the resources they gain access to. Dreams of success that do not take into account these realities will remain just dreams. Source: BFAP BASELINE | Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Download the full document at www.bfap.co.za.