Lost opportunities: another ten-year look ahead

Prices for meat, dairy and fish worldwide are expected to rise faster than those for cereals over the next decade. This is according to the latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook which is released every year.

In Africa, although production of meat and cereals is expected to increase over the next decade, consumption will grow faster. This will be a result of increased population levels rather than individuals eating more than normal.

As the editorial comment in the CTA's Bi-weekly Agricultural Update points out, this will result in "increased import dependency" and can be seen as "a lost opportunity for African producers". More than ever before, African states need to pay more than just lip service to the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP).

Agricultural trade between Russia, China, Brazil steps up

We all knew there would be a vacuum to be filled after Russia banned agricultural products from the countries which had slapped sanctions on her -- the USA, EU, Canada and Australia (with Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Spain being the biggest losers in the tit-for-tat move).

It is with interest we read this evening that China and Brazil have begun (or are about to begin) stepping into the gap. China will supply vegetables and fruit, and import grain, rapeseed (canola) and honey from Russia. Brazil will supply dairy products (and surely meat products? Russia used to be a major market for Brazil until 2011). Brazil will in turn import fish and grains from Russia.

On RT, find the Russia-China and Russia-Brazil articles.

Scotland votes: William Wallace and tomorrow

You think I'm curious about tomorrow and the Scottish vote? You bet I am! I have followed the 18th September vote with great interest. Although it's in the other hemisphere, it’s very much a humanity vote, and which way will it go?

Tomorrow has been compared by some here with the 27 April 1994 vote, a day which heralded democratic rule after centuries of colonialism and then apartheid. It’s as significant, of course. I'm not sure how far to take that comparison. Apartheid was sold, to the white population anyway (and some of the black elite), as self determination: "Here's some land for the Zulus, there's some land for the Xhosas, there's some land for the [etc] ... and here is our land. You may work here, but your own country is over there". On the 27 April 1994, the people living across South Africa (at least 11 "nations" as there are 11 official languages!) all expressed confidence in the very diverse mix that is this country. In many ways it was a "Better together" vote.

The human psyche loves the I-thou, us-them definition. We know who we are if we have drawn a line in the sand to separate us from the other. And we use these lines for far more than nationality (do some reading up if you are not familiar with Jung's idea of Shadow)!

What if we are all on the same side?

The clans of Scotland are its glory. The lines between them have also been its weakness. The land was kept in servitude, subjugated through a divide-and-rule strategy by outsiders. Clans and classes were turned against each other. What William Wallace had to contend with!

Some have taken cynical advantage of unity, of course, and people are drafted into wars which have nothing to do with them! What did the Scots have to do with Blair's Iraq or Cameron's adventure in Libya? How sincere is "Better together"?

Tomorrow raises interesting questions for various corners of the globe (sshh! and some discomfort). What about the Ukraine? Spain, Morocco and China? There are reports this evening that the Shetland Islands would consider their own independent future if Scotland secedes from the U.K. (so much for Scotland's dreams of wealth from oil!) My goodness, what about Lesotho? Some have suggested incorporating that country as the 10th province of South Africa. Remember also that the US fought its civil war to prevent the Southern States from going it alone.

It's understandable that we want boundaries, but what if the lines we draw are artificial and we are more than the human beings wanting to mark off our own caves? It might take centuries still for us to learn this but what if we are all actually on the same side?

Shucks! Until then, let's make our way as best as we can with the light that we have ...

Going to Pretoria this year?

At the end of this month, September 30, the AMT South African Annual Agricultural Outlook Conference will be held once again at the CSIR International Convention Centre, Pretoria, South Africa.

Presentations are done on aspects across the agricultural value chain.

• Vusi Thembekwayo’s presentation will be titled “Leading at the edge of chaos”.
• The futurist, Neil Jacobsohn will discuss “Thriving inside the Perfect Storm – Finding opportunity in an world of radical change”.
• Daniel Silke will address the conference on “Outcome of the 2014 Election and the Effect on SA Agriculture 2015”.
• Mike Schüssler will present the Domestic and Global Economic Outlook 2015: Prospects for higher and sustained economic growth in the medium term.”
• Johan van den Berg (Santam Agriculture) will give a Weather Outlook for 2015 – Climate variability and climate change in the agricultural context.”
• Ernst Janovsky, (ABSA Agribusiness) will provide the global and SA outlook for the supply and demand of grains, oilseeds and livestock.”

The Keynote speaker will be Philip Lymbery from the UK with his presentation “Farmageddon: The true cost of Cheap meat – the Dark side of the Global Food system”.

A panel discussion on land reform, the economic and political future and how the different sectors will be influenced by these, will follow.

Find the programme with booking form here. Alternatively, find "Conference proceedings" on the Agrimark Trends website.

Unearthed: farm girl's award-winning international movie

The documentary Unearthed, by local farm girl Jolynn Minnaar near Graaff-Reinet, is drawing international attention. Its topic? Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) ...

Like many who grow up in rural areas or on a farm, Minnaar loved the wide uninhabited space of the Karoo. And when plans were revealed to frack for shale gas, she went to the U.S.A. better to understand the technology. Here she found the consequences of fracking to be rather unlike the promises her rural community had been given.

The production team believe the documentary to be the widest collection of material on fracking available. At the international film festival in Sheffield, England, in June it won the "Green Award". It is voted by many to be the best South African movie this year. Find the trailer on Youtube or at www.un-earthed.com. A shorter documentary by the same team, The Fracking Facade, is essential viewing.

Last week, Minnaar won the 2014 "Woman of the Year: Change Agent" title by Glamour Magazine.

It's a small world: wheat in Russia and the Ukraine

The latest news from the commodity trading boys is that tension between Russia and the Ukraine, two of the world's key wheat suppliers, is not affecting wheat prices. This will remain true, of course, as long as the weather smiles on the crop in other countries like France and the USA. The International Grains Council has raised its 2014/15 world wheat production forecast from 702 million tonnes to 713 million.

It's a small world and South Africa is vulnerable to what happens elsewhere. You see, the country could, but doesn't, grow enough wheat for itself because of the government's almost total non-interference in the free market context. Hopefully one day the global community's interconnectedness will play a greater role in the way we treat each other. For now, here's to the weather! 

Find the commodity trading chapter in The Agri Handbook here. The wheat chapter is here.

Livestock, living stock and recently departed beasts

Many of us enjoy meat products, and the work of various red meat organisations mean that we do so with a measure of confidence that the process of turning live animal to meat product was a humane one. Our meal may be accompanied with a silent thank-you to the recently departed beast (which is what "saying grace" before meal time in most religious communities is meant to be about) but we don't think of it again, or at least not until the next meal.

But let me tell you about the time we changed the name of the section dealing with animals in an earlier edition of our book from "Livestock" to "Living stock". It happened literally minutes before PDFing the publication for print, nearly ten years back, a knee-jerk response to a horror story of meat that was distributed -- while the animal was still alive and in a clamp! "Living stock" was to make the point that the term  "livestock" no longer does, namely that animals are stock which live i.e. livestock. And being alive, they feel sensations like pain, hunger and thirst. Needless to say, the red meat organisations too voiced their horror at the incident.

I regretted my impulsiveness before the book came back from the printers. I certainly regretted it afterwards but weathered the storm (which included a scolding from an academic: "It's 'livestock', never 'living stock'"!) and we duly reverted to "livestock" and "animal husbandry" in subsequent editions.

Did you know that some agriculture avoids animals and animal products completely (read about vegan organic farming here)?

Quite an interesting article appeared in the U.K.'s The Guardian at the close of last week. The owner of a new restaurant paid a visit to the abattoir that would process her meat. Interestingly, the animals are gassed with CO2 -- prodders and stun guns aren't used. Read about it here.

Abattoirs in one of the nearly 180 chapters in The Agri Handbook.