“Junk” status for South Africa – what happens to agriculture?

To our overseas readers who may not know, the South African president fired several ministers including the respected finance minister and his deputy, and as a consequence, the country’s credit status has been lowered by both Standard & Poor’s and Fitch to the level derogatively called “Junk”. Today, which sees a second day of mass protests, is in a curious irony also the birthday of both the president and the former finance minister.

Agricultural services provider Senwes looked at what the downgrade means for agriculture:

The producer

• A weaker rand will drive up the price of inputs like fertiliser, chemicals and fuel.
• Imported tractors and parts will be more expensive.
• Sustained depreciation of the rand will lead to higher grain prices since these are derived from international prices [more bad news for the poultry sector!]
• Rising inflation levels will put pressure on the producer’s disposable income as their money’s purchasing power deteriorates.
• Interest rates will not be dropped as had been expected. As a result, interest on agricultural loans will remain high.
• Debt will increase and will need to be scrupulously managed by the producer.
• The producer’s ability to pay back loans may be affected.
• The producer’s weakened financial situation can have the consequence of his taking more risks e.g. not taking out insurance.

The consumer

• The same momentum which increased input costs for the producer will have decreased the buying power of the consumer. This will affect consumer demand for agricultural produce.
• Further weakening of the exchange rate, interest rates and higher inflation will place consumer disposable income under further pressure. The poorest of the poor will be affected by this.

Agricultural companies

• The weakening exchange rate paired with high inflation will negatively influence agricultural companies’ operating costs and profits.
• Financing costs will increase, which will see a drop in expansion and investment (and the opportunities which go with these).
• Reduced international competitiveness of South African companies as a result of increased production costs.
• Lower profitability and higher expenses will lead to a shrinking agricultural sector with direct results to job creation in this sector.
• The macro economic environment will be negatively influenced by the contraction in the agricultural sector.

 Find the Senwes Corporate Finance article here.

Double #BlackMonday for the Karoo

There is quite a hullabaloo in the country following a sizable cull of government ministers and deputy ministers. Today is #BlackMonday, and demonstrations are planned for Friday and beyond. Even the farmer-evangelist Angus Buchan is responding to the socio-political toxicity of the moment under the banner It’s Time. 

As serious as this all may be, it has allowed an event of equally (or more) insidious character to slip past under the radar, an announcement by Mineral Resources Minister Zwane of government’s intention to proceed with the shale gas adventure in the Karoo. 

Frackers were turned back at the gates following determined and effective opposition from farmers in northern KwaZulu-Natal and the Free State, and have faced enormous resistance in the KZN Midlands as well as in the Karoo. After Zwane’s announcement, frackers everywhere will be much emboldened. 

The irony is that President Jacob Zuma, in his capacity as Chairperson of the Heads of State Committee on the United Nations (UN) High Level Panel on Water, officially opened the United Nations (UN) World Water Day Summit and Expo in Durban last week. The summit was held under the theme “Water and Sanitation is a human right”.

Watch the documentary Unearthed by farm girl Jolynn Minnaar which exposes the false assurances by multinationals that fracking is a safe technology as she travels among American communities who have (multinational-donated) water carts behind their houses and a visible reluctance to speak about it. (Oh, don’t hold a naked flame any where near the taps in their houses!)  If the first-world Americans can’t help slipping up here and there, what chance South Africa? Speak to farmers and conservationists in Mpumalanga about what happened to farms and wetlands when Zwane's other boys, the mines, moved into the neighbourhood.

Politicians come and go, some with fanfare, some with relief. The potential destruction of an entire region’s water resources will leave a legacy longer than any politician’s and render vast swathes of rural territory a wasteland, sans (drinkable) water, sans humans, sans wildlife.  This is as deserving, if not more so, than any #BlackMonday.